Blog Entry

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Posted on: November 29, 2011 6:52 pm
 
Listed below are official Playoff Scenarios for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.  This was a bit of a doozy with Green Bay's situation regarding clinching a playoff berth this week.  The reason is that so many teams in the mix play each other (DET-NO, NO-ATL, NYG-GB and two DAL-NYG games).

After spending much of Sunday night and Monday a.m. on Green Bay's playoff scenarios, the situation was made easier when my NY Giants laid an egg in NO.  That loss meant that no Wild Card team can come out of the East division and beat GB (even though NYG can beat GB H2H next week, they would have to win out to keep pace at 11-5 and that would mean 2 DAL losses....which would mean NYG is division champion and not in Wild Card race).

GB has some interesting twists as they have tiebreaker advantage over nearly everyone except NYG (could lose H2H this week...but that's moot wrt Wild Card berth) and DET (DET can beat GB on Common Opponents).  GB already has beaten both NO and ATL H2H.  Also...the big twist is that ATL beat DET H2H and can use DET in some scenarios to jump ahead of GB.  In the GB playoff scenario below where they make it in with a TIE + CHI loss or tie, they need that loss as ATL can beat GB at 11-4-1 if DET is also 11-4-1 and not division champion.  ATL gets in as #5 and DET is #6.  Thus...the need for the CHI loss or tie which would negate two other teams ahead of GB in NFC North.

So after all that, here are the Scenarios for GB (Division and Playoff) and SF (division only).  If NYG had beaten NO last night GB would have had a scenario to clinch a first round playoff bye...but alas...that did not occur.

WEEK 13 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Minnesota, St. Louis.

GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches North Division title:
   1) GB win + DET loss or tie
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss
   3) CHI loss + DET loss
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win
   2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie
   3) CHI loss
   4) ATL loss
   5) DET loss
   6) NO loss + ATL tie

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
  San Francisco clinches West Division title:
   1) SF win or tie
   2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

AFC

  CLINCHED:    None.
  ELIMINATED:  Indianapolis.


Joe

 

  
Comments

Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 8, 2011 12:41 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Nice.  This scenario looks good to me.  One nit-picky thing, CLE does have to lose 1 or tie 2 of its remaining games so it doesn't grab the wc spot at 8-8 or 7-8-1.

I think another variant is that JAX needs only to win against TEN, not all games.  If TEN is 7-9 in 2nd place AFCS, they will have a 5-7 conf rec and would fall out of the MIA - CIN - TEN - SD tiebreaker just like JAX did.

Wait!  Scratch that!  Just re-read your line that JAX needs 7 wins for SD to tie DEN in SOV.  Details...

Ok, so I punched this into the ESPN playoff machine.  I think the playoff machine has a bug when performing a 3 or 4 team wc tiebreak where one team wins by h2h.  This example illustrates that.  I punched in the scenario described above, EXCEPT that I had JAX lose this week to TB.  It shows DEN in 2nd place AFCW.  But then it shows MIA as the projected #6 seed.  This tiebreak involves MIA - CIN - TEN - DEN, and TEN should drop out by conf rec.  Then MIA - CIN - DEN should be won by DEN, via h2h, as Eric stated originally.

When you give JAX the win over TBY, it lists the 2nd place teams as MIA - CIN - JAX - SD, with MIA #6, as we expect.







Since: Dec 17, 2010
Posted on: December 8, 2011 12:59 am
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

For this week, I have CLE and CAR as the only two teams that are automatically eliminated with a loss this week. CLE would effectively clinch last place by losing any of their remaining games. CAR would be unable to surpass CHI or DET in any tiebreaking step.

MIA would not be completely eliminated with a loss this weekend. Here's how they could still qualify for the postseason:

1. MIA must win the other three remaining games.
2. NYJ, CIN, TEN, DEN, and OAK lose all their remaining games.
3. JAX wins all remaining games.
4. BUF loses to SD and MIA, then beats DEN and NE.
5. SD beats BUF, loses to BAL and DET, and beats OAK.
6. NE, BAL, PIT, HOU, and KC all clinch playoff berths.

Thus, MIA, NYJ, BUF, CIN, JAX, TEN, SD, DEN, and OAK are all tied at 7-9.
In the AFC East, BUF is eliminated in the H2H among those teams. MIA would have a better division record than NYJ (4-2 to 3-3), so MIA gets second place.
In the AFC South, JAX advances ahead of TEN based on division record (4-2 to 1-5).

In the AFC West, each of SD, DEN, and OAK split their series amongst themselves. OAK is eliminated because of worse division record (2-4). SD and DEN are tied in H2H, division record, common games (explaining SD win over BUF), conference record (explaining SD loss to BAL). In SOV, among non-common victories, SD has victories over DEN, BUF and JAX, while DEN has victories over SD, CIN and NYJ, all of whom have 7 wins. (This is why I need JAX to win all their games, and BUF to beat NE). So DEN and SD are tied in SOV. So it comes down to SOS. The only differences are SD played BAL and JAX, while DEN played CIN and TEN. TEN and JAX each have 7 wins, while BAL has more wins than CIN. Thus SD gets 2nd place in the AFC West.

So then we compare MIA, CIN, JAX, and SD for the 2nd wild card spot. H2H doesn't apply, but JAX has worse conference record (5-7) than the others (6-6). Among MIA, CIN, and SD, the SOV tiebreaker (and the 2nd wild card) could go to MIA.

Some notes: in a two-way tie between MIA and CIN, CIN would advance (3-2 to 2-3 in games against BUF, CLE, HOU, DEN). So MIA needs a third team from another division to finish 7-9 and 6-6 in conference. Only SD or DEN could do so, but DEN already has wins over CIN and MIA and would advance H2H. Thus SD must finish 2nd in AFC West. KC must finish with at least 7 wins since they need to beat NYJ and either DEN or OAK.

The only possible variant I could find is OAK to win AFC West, and KC to beat NYJ and DEN and lose to GB and OAK. SD still clinches 2nd place over KC (based on conference record) and DEN (based on SOS).



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 6, 2011 12:42 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Joe-

This weeks scenarios make last week look like a walk in the park!  And you have demonstrated why you are the tiebreaker maestro, coming up with scenarios I hadn't even though of - for example that a DEN tie this week and tie against KC can give the AFCW to OAK @ 10-6, but DEN beats PIT by conf record.  Genius!
  "Now...where TEN does not lose in the PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss scenario, TEN could win the South at 11-5 and HOU could end up at 10-6 creating a PIT-HOU-DEN 3-way tie.  they all would have 8-4 conf records.  If DEN wins the SOV tiebreaker for the #5 seed (which still looks possible...but need to confirm), then HOU would be the #6 seed based on H2H win over PIT.  "

I did look deeper into this and confirmed that DEN can win this SOV.  SOV analysis is always fun and full of potential inaccuracies.  I attempted to account for wins from presumed victories, wins by defeated teams to make the scenario happen, and games where 2 defeated teams play each other.  I calculated the following win ranges:

  • PIT - min 61 max 83
  • HOU - min 59 max 76
  • DEN - min 69 max 84 (assuming loss to KC wk 17)

That leaves everything open (I also found everything open in a PIT/TEN/DEN SOV tiebreak - numbers are slightly different based on TEN record and which 3 games DEN wins).  TEN also lags slightly behind given the weak AFC South, but could still pull of an SOV win.

I have a feeling the AFC is going to be fun like this for weeks to come!




Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: December 6, 2011 12:11 am
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Finally, the Steelers clinching scenarios have been determined.  I think I still have a few brain cells left.  JAC is now eliminated.

In the AFC, three teams can possibly be eliminated in week 14: 

Miami is out with:
1. Loss plus a win by any one of DEN, NYJ, TEN
2. CIN win

BUF is eliminated with:
1. Loss + a win by either NYJ or CIN

CLE is out with:
1. Loss
2. CIN win
3. Tie + CIN tie

All AFC West teams are safe.  There appear to be many elimination scenarios in the NFC, especially all the 4-8 teams.  I'll look at those later.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2011 10:50 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Ryan....actually....SD would NOT BE ELIMINATED if they lose tonight on MNF as they can still win division at 8-8.

JAC IS ELIMINATED from playoff contention with loss tonight.  


  



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 5, 2011 10:28 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Not quite...

SD can win out to get to 8-8.  Both DEN and OAK would have to lose out (they don't have any more H2H games).  This means that KC get 2 more wins.  KC could lose their other two games.  This would mean that SD wins the West at 8-8 and DEN, KC, and OAK all finish 7-9.  JAX, however, is out with a loss, as they can't win the division and has a worse conference record than any potential 7-9 contender.



Since: Dec 5, 2011
Posted on: December 5, 2011 10:17 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

So there is no way the Steelers can get a bye week or at the very worst the 2 seed if they finish tied at 13-3 with both the Texans and the Patriots assuming all 3 of these teams win out the rest of their games and the Ravens lose at least once and the Steelers win the AFC North with a 13-3 record ??



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 5, 2011 9:45 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Looks good to me Joe.


everyone, just in case you didn't know...Loser of MNF will be TOTALLY eliminated from everything!



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2011 7:48 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

After reviewing this again....in the NE 4-way tie scenario detailed below, I forgot that I already included a DEN loss which combined with an OAK loss means that OAK cannot win division over DEN at 10-6 (DEN would win on common opponents).   So...NE at 10-6 is not a factor for PIT once the other game results occur.

So....that simplifies the PIT scenarios back to the following:
1) PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss

So HERE'S WHERE I AM FOR WEEK 14:

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE 

NE clinches AFC East division title with:
1) WIN + NYJ loss.

HOU clinches AFC South division title with:
1) WIN + TEN loss

PIT clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss


NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

GB clinches a first-round bye with:
1) WIN
2) TIE + NO loss/tie
3) NO loss

NO clinches NFC South division title with:
1) WIN + ATL loss

NO clinches playoff berth with:
1) WIN + CHI loss
2) WIN + DET loss





Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2011 4:44 pm
 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

GwSmith and others...apologize in advance for the volume below, but hopefully it will be helpful in thinking through the PIT scenarios.

The other PIT scenario that is presenting problems is situations where PIT is matched up at 10-6 in WC tie with either 1) TEN and DEN or 2) HOU and DEN as they can all be 8-4 in conference and tiebreaker would go to Strength of Victory (SOV).

GW...in the PIT-TEN-DEN scenario...you rightly point out that PIT can come out of this no worse than 2nd even if TEN or DEN win on SOV.  This is fine except in scenarios where NYJ does not lose (thus the SOV winner would be the #6 seed).   So...in the PIT WIN + CIN loss + OAK loss + TEN loss scenario, we need to safeguard for the PIT-TEN-DEN situation.  If DEN loses this week, they would have to win out to get to 10-6 and that would include a win over KC and DEN-OAK would tie in division record BUT DEN would beat OAK on common opponents (8-4 to 7-5) and win the division relegating OAK to WC status (in which case PIT would advance).  If DEN ties this week, DEN would need to tie one other game to get equal to 10-6 (9-5-2) and that game would have to be KC to allow OAK to win the division.  But that tie would give DEN an 8-3-1 conf record and DEN would win the 3-way tie with PIT and TEN on conf record and the #6 seed (in which case PIT would miss out on playoffs).  So...an added DEN loss is one safeguard in the PIT WIN + CIN loss + OAK loss + TEN loss scenario.

However...another consideration in this scenario where NYJ does not lose is...Can NE get involved in WC ties with PIT at 10-6 (even though PIT won H2H) and allow other teams to advance in front of PIT.  A 3-way tie with NE-PIT-TEN wouldn't keep PIT out as PIT beat both teams H2H.  Looking at NE-PIT-DEN, H2H would not apply unless NE loses to DEN on wk 15.  In the situation where we added a DEN loss this week to safeguard for PIT-TEN-DEN scenario, that would mean DEN would have to win out after loss this wk to get to 10-6 and that would include a win over NE wk 15.  If NE loses that game, they would have lost to both PIT and DEN and would drop out of that 3-way tie and then PIT would advance over DEN on common games.  So...as far as this scenario is concerned, the PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss works for PIT.    BUT...what about a 4-way tie between NE-PIT-TEN-DEN at 10-6?  NE didn't play TEN and PIT didn't play DEN and no one swept the others or was swept by the others, so H2H does not apply.  With a DEN loss this week as mentioned in the adjusted scenario, DEN could get to 8-4 conf record and that would include a win over NE.  But NE could still lose that game and get to 10-6 overall with an 8-4 conf record UNLESS NE wins this week.  If NE wins this week, they would have to lose out to get to 10-6 and that would give them a 7-5 conf record thus dropping out of the 4-way tie and leaving PIT-TEN-DEN which we know PIT wins if DEN loses this week.  However, if NE doesn't win this week and wins a game over the final 2 weeks, they would end up at 10-6 overall with an 8-4 conf record.  In that 4-way tie scenario, the situation that would hurt PIT would be for NE to win on SOV.  NE would be beating MIA or BUF and that would get them pretty close to PIT in SOV with many games to play impacting that tiebreaker.  Would need to look at this more to see what might need to occur this week to ensure NE can't win this 4-team SOV tiebreaker.  Or...we add "Either PIT, TEN or DEN secures SOV advantage over NE" to scenario.

So..the new scenarios I have with the Jets not losing are:
1) PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss + NE win
2) PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss + Either PIT, TEN or DEN clinches SOV advantage over NE

Now...where TEN does not lose in the PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss scenario, TEN could win the South at 11-5 and HOU could end up at 10-6 creating a PIT-HOU-DEN 3-way tie.  they all would have 8-4 conf records.  If DEN wins the SOV tiebreaker for the #5 seed (which still looks possible...but need to confirm), then HOU would be the #6 seed based on H2H win over PIT.  So again...i think we need to add a DEN loss to this to avoid OAK winning division and leaving this scenario open.

That would make the PIT scenarios the following:
1) PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) PIT WIN + CIN loss + NYJ loss + OAK loss + DEN loss
3) PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss + NE win
4) PIT WIN + CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss + DEN loss + Either PIT, TEN or DEN clinches SOV advantage over NE

Still working on this....so not final yet....let me know what you guys think.

Joe
     
  


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