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WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 21, 2011 2:52 am
 
Week 15...Seriously?   Week 15 in 2011 was one of the most upside down weeks in memory.  Not only did we have an undefeated team lose and a winless team win, we had many teams that needed to win to secure either playoff spots or better playoff position drop the ball. 

In the AFC, 7 of the top 9 teams (after wk 15) lose as division leaders BAL, HOU and DEN all lose and we also see PIT, NYJ, TEN and OAK lose as well.  NE now controls destiny for #1 seed and the possibility of 4 8-8 teams in the AFC West gets closer to reality (in which case KC would win the division).

In the NFC, GB, SF, CHI and the Jekyll and Hyde Giants all lost...while DET (with a huge come-from-behind win), NO, ATL and DAL all kept pace and SEA is still in the hunt (their potential 8-4 conf record along with win over CHI helps).

Full playoff clinching scenarios are below.  Week 16 has a HUGE amount of KEY GAMES (Week 17 is fairly weak at this point) including a big game on MNF between NO and ATL as ATL hangs on to slim hopes for division crown, CHI @ GB, PHI @ DAL, NYG @ NYJ, SD @ DET, OAK @ KC, SF @ SEA...as well as MIA @ NE, CLE @ BAL and DEN @ BUF.   Should be a fun week.  Stay tuned....

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
               San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
               New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Carolina, Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win + NO loss

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) NO win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win + NYG loss or tie
   2) DAL tie + NYG loss

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) ATL win or tie
   2) DAL loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
   3) NYG loss or tie + CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie

 DETROIT Lions
  Detroit clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DET win or tie
   2) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + DAL loss or tie
   3) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + NYG loss or tie
   4) CHI loss or tie + ARI loss or tie + SEA loss or tie + ATL win or tie

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    Houston Texans -- South Division.
               New England Patriots -- East Division.
               Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
               Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, Jacksonville.

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches a first-round bye:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie
   2) NE win + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) NE tie + HOU loss
   4) NE tie + PIT loss + BAL loss
  New England clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win + HOU loss or tie + PIT loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win + PIT loss + HOU loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win + OAK loss or tie
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss + SD loss or tie
  Denver clinches a wild card spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie

Comments

Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2011 1:34 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

A couple things to keep in mind, that have tripped me up this week.  In the AFC West, don't forget to apply the h2h winning pct among tied teams before the division record tiebreak.  In the 4-team 8-8 tie, KC technically wins by h2h winning pct with a 4-2 record (sweeping OAK and splitting DEN, SD).  Second place then goes to OAK by h2h winning pct (assuming OAK sweeps SD, which I think is required for all teams to be 8-8) 3-1 vs. DEN 2-2, SD 1-3.  But each AFCW scenario is different based on DEN/KC, OAK/KC, and OAK/SD results.

Also in any 3-way wild card ties involving CIN and TEN, common games could come into play.  This is due to CIN & TEN playing 4th place schedules, and the AFCN-AFCS full round robin.  The only exception is CIN - TEN - DEN, who all played h2h and split.  Likewise, 3-way ties involving SD & NYJ (2nd place schedules) also brings in the potential for common games.  The only 4-team tiebreak where common games could come into play is NYJ - CIN - TEN - SD.



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 12:53 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Thanks vito.. I knew what he meant though :)



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 12:53 pm
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Thanks vito.. I knew what he meant though :)



Since: Dec 9, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 12:36 pm
 

2011-2012 NFL Spreadsheet

Check out  .

I am trying to get it to format correctly but I have the real EXcel spreadsheet if anyone wants to see it.  Any positive and negative feedback is much appreiated.



Since: Dec 29, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2011 11:32 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ryanmarcantonio,
If DET wins, SEA cannot catch them. This means that SEA needs ATL to lose out to 9-7. If ATL loses out, SEA was beaten by them, so they need CHI to win out to 9-7, so ATL is eliminated via conf record and then SEA beat CHI h2h. If CHI loses, that 3 way tie can't happen, so ATL would win tiebreaker h2h. ARI cannot add to the tiebreaker because SEA at 9-7 means they beat ARI in week 17.


This is accurate but not complete, as it does not account for DAL also being in the mix as a 9-7 wild card.  If DET wins and CHI loses, then no NFCN team can be involved in a 9-7 tiebreak.  It would either be ATL - SEA or ATL - SEA - DAL.  And SEA has lost h2h to both.  In the 3-way tie, SEA is eliminated by h2h sweep, then DAL advances by conf rec over ATL.  SEA is still alive by conf rec when either DET or CHI also enter the tiebreak (then SEA's h2h results get ignored).




Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 22, 2011 11:15 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Kulko, conf record comes first in wc tiebreakers. Also, 4 team wc tiebreaks CAN have common games. SD, CIN, TEN, and NYJ all played DEN, JAX, BAL, and BUF this year.



Since: Dec 7, 2010
Posted on: December 22, 2011 10:42 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Re: ryanmarcantonio

in 3way ties there are also the steps of H2H Sweep and Common games as possible tiebreakers before Coonf Record. If you add a fourth team, they usually become invalid, as the 4th team has no 4 common opponnents with all three other and thus Conf Record becomes the relevant tiebreaker.




Since: Dec 18, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2011 10:39 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

If someone can post a comprehensive list of all the SoV scenarios alive (including those that have already been clinched and those that have already been analyzed), I will attempt as many as I find time for. It's already Thursday though, and the games are Saturday this week.

 Joe, where are you watching the games on New Years Day? I'll be in LA from the 24th to the 4th of January. Right now it looks like 12 of the 13 early games still have potential for deciding playoff teams and/or seeding.





Since: Nov 21, 2011
Posted on: December 22, 2011 8:20 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Ryanmarcantonio, There's no secret formula (at least for me..). I usually will just look at the scenario and if it doesnt immediately make sense then I ask myself "what situation makes that possible to work?" it really helps if you know the teams' conf records off the top of your head so you have a basic idea of how tiebreakers would flow.



Since: Nov 20, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2011 1:56 am
 

WEEK 16 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS


Scot-free said:

ATL (9-5) - 2,3,5*,6,E
I was just looking at highest seed possible scenarios and I found that Atlanta and San Francisco tying at 11-5 for the 2nd best records in the NFC would come down to SoV.  Currently SF is 69-85 and Atlanta is 61-93.  I found that the best Atlanta can get to is 77-99 and if they indeed get to that best possible SoV, San Francisco gets to a worst of 79-97 and therefore I see no way that Atlanta can get the 2 seed and 1st round bye.  Does anyone else concur?

As for the other seedings possible, here's what I see:

NFC:

Philly---4 seed, but no WC(5 or 6)
Arizona---5 seed
NY Giants---4 seed, but not WC(5 or 6)
Chicago---5 seed
Seattle---5 seed
Detroit---5 seed
Atlanta---3 seed
Dallas---4 seed
New Orleans---2 seed
San Francisco---1 seed
Green Bay---1 seed

AFC:

Kansas City---4 seed, but no WC(5 or 6)
San Diego---4 seed or 6 seed(no WC 5)
Oakland---4 seed or 6 seed(no WC 5)
Tennessee---6 seed
Cincinnati---6 seed
NY Jets---6 seed
Denver---2 seed
Pittsburgh---1 seed
Houston---1 seed
Baltimore---1 seed
New England---1 seed

Everyone concur with these?  If not, please give me details.  Here's to the least possible clinching scenarios being achieved this week!!!!  Can I get a "hell yeah" to that????  Hell yeah!!!!!   Surprised


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