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WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Posted on: December 25, 2011 4:47 pm
 
Well...we finally made it through another tiebreaker season.  It's been interesting, especially in the AFC West and with all the potential ties at 9-7 in both the AFC and NFC.  I'm putting out Week 17 scenarios a little early since all AFC games are done for week 16 and the NFC is pretty cut and dry now.

Also...you should know that the scenarios below were simplified as two potential scenarios that would come down to Strength of Victory (SOV) tiebreaker are already locked up.  If BAL wins and NE loses, the battle for the #1 seed comes down to SOV as they would be tied in conf record and common opponents.  BAL has already secured the better record among teams they have defeated (SOV) over NE, otherwise we might have had some games with playoff impact that are not directly related to BAL-NE.  The other scenario where SOV may come into play is a 4-team tie at 9-7 between CIN-NYJ-TEN-OAK (needs CIN loss, NYJ win, TEN win, OAK win and DEN win).  CIN would drop out on conf record and NYJ-TEN-OAK don't have enough common opponents so it goes to SOV.  OAK has already secured better Win-Loss-Tied percentage among defeated opponents (assuming scenario above) over TEN and NYJ.

Also....TEN is probably the most interesting scenario to figure out.   If you look at TEN scenarios below, basically they need another team to match up with them and CIN at 9-7 to avoid losing H2H to CIN.  If Jets win...they win that 3-way with NYJ-CIN-TEN on common opponents over NYJ after CIN drops out on conf record.  BUT...they can't have OAK as Wild Card potential at 9-7 as well because in that case CIN drops out and not enough common opponents for NYJ-TEN-OAK and OAK wins that tiebreaker on Strength of Victory.    BUT....if OAK is there as potential WC at 9-7 (both DEN and OAK win), TEN can advance if NYJ loses as then it would be TEN-CIN-OAK and CIN would drop out on conf record and TEN beats OAK on common opponents.  So TEN gets in if they Win and CIN loses and either NYJ wins or OAK wins (and doesn't win division)...BUT NOT BOTH.  Weird.

So, we're left with below:

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE (also includes remaining 2 Week 16 games):

NFC

  CLINCHED:    Green Bay Packers -- North Division and first-round bye.
San Francisco 49ers -- West Division.
New Orleans Saints -- wild card spot.
Detroit Lions -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Arizona, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington.

 GREEN BAY PACKERS
  Green Bay clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
   1) one GB win or tie
   2) SF loss or tie

 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  San Francisco clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SF win
   2) SF tie + one NO loss or tie
   3) one NO loss
  San Francisco clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:  
   1) SF win + two GB losses

 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  New Orleans clinches NFC South Division:
   1) one NO win or tie
   2) one ATL loss or tie
  New Orleans clinches a first-round bye:
   1) two NO wins + SF loss or tie
   2) one NO win + one NO tie + SF loss

 NEW YORK Giants
  NY Giants clinch NFC East Division:
   1) NYG win or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches NFC East Division:
   1) DAL win

 ATLANTA Falcons
  Atlanta clinches NFC South Division:
   1) two ATL wins + two NO losses
  Atlanta clinches a wild card spot:
   1) one ATL win or tie
   2) one CHI loss or tie

 CHICAGO Bears
  Chicago clinches a wild card spot:
   1) two CHI wins + two ATL losses

 AFC

  CLINCHED:    New England Patriots -- East Division and a first-round bye.
Houston Texans -- South Division.
Baltimore Ravens -- wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- wild card spot.
  ELIMINATED:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, San Diego

 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) NE win or tie
   2) BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) BAL win
   2) BAL tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) PIT loss
  Baltimore clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) BAL win + NE loss

 PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  Pittsburgh clinches AFC North Division and a first-round bye:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie
   2) PIT tie + BAL loss
  Pittsburgh clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
   1) PIT win + BAL loss or tie + NE loss

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches AFC West Division:
   1) DEN win
   2) DEN tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) OAK loss

 OAKLAND Raiders
  Oakland clinches AFC West Division:
   1) OAK win + DEN loss or tie
   2) OAK tie + DEN loss
  Oakland clinches a wild card spot:
   1) OAK win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie
   2) OAK win + CIN loss + NYJ win
 
 CINCINNATI Bengals
  Cincinnati clinches a wild card spot:
   1) CIN win or tie
   2) NYJ loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   3) NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
 
 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a wild card spot:
   1) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   2) NYJ win + CIN loss + TEN loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 TENNESSEE Titans
  Tennessee clinches a wild card spot:
   1) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie
   2) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie
   3) TEN win + CIN loss + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

Comments

Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: January 2, 2012 12:17 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

KellynMatt, I explained in an earlier post the subject of the 4th place schedule. Obviously things change year to year... two 2010 division champs in the AFC finished in last place this year. But there's no point in me defending this argument further, because every statistician here will shoot it down. So consider it dropped.

Really, the bigger issue is the logic of the placement of the common opponents divisional tiebreaker to begin with. After I posted  tonight I read Joe's response to various other posts that he made today. He said:

One of his comments was:

* League went to 14 common opponents for division foes...so that should be key behind H2H and division records for division ties (I agreed with this change of moving up common opponents for division in front of conf record in 2002)
When I first questioned the placement of the common opponents division tiebreaker, I was told by Joe himself that the above statement *was not true*. That it was not considered 14 games. I believe he said at the time it was 8. In tonight's post on the matter, it was 10. So which is it?

You say:

it makes a whole lot more sense to break the tie based on games that were the same than ones that were different, at least to me.
If you are using conference record first, there are no different games. It's just a different subset.

Logic would dictate the subsets should go from smallest to largest.

So which is it? The answer obviously depends on how you determine the subsets, which vary based on-- I'm not sure what.




Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 2, 2012 12:04 am
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

And the NFC...

2012 OPPONENTS (NFC):

NFC EAST

DALLAS COWBOYS
Home:  NYG, PHI, WAS, NO, TB, CLE, PIT, CHI
Away:   NYG, PHI, WAS, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, SEA

NEW YORK GIANTS
Home:  DAL, PHI, WAS, NO, TB, CLE, PIT, GB
Away:   DAL, PHI, WAS, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, SF

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Home:  DAL, NYG, WAS, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, DET
Away:   DAL, NYG, WAS, NO, TB, CLE, PIT, ARI

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Home:  DAL, NYG, PHI, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, MIN
Away:   DAL, NYG, PHI, NO, TB, CLE, PIT, STL

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO BEARS
Home:  DET, GB, MIN, STL, SEA, HOU, IND, CAR
Away:   DET, GB, MIN, ARI, SF, JAC, TEN, DAL

DETROIT LIONS
Home:  CHI, GB, MIN, STL, SEA, HOU, IND, ATL
Away:   CHI, GB, MIN, ARI, SF, JAC, TEN, PHI

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Home:  CHI, DET, MIN, ARI, SF, JAC, TEN, NO
Away:   CHI, DET, MIN, STL, SEA, HOU, IND, NYG

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Home:  CHI, DET, GB, ARI, SF, JAC, TEN, TB
Away:   CHI, DET, GB, STL, SEA, HOU, IND, WAS

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA FALCONS
Home:  CAR, NO, TB, DAL, NYG, DEN, OAK, ARI
Away:   CAR, NO, TB, PHI, WAS, KC, SD, DET

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Home:  ATL, NO, TB, DAL, NYG, DEN, OAK, SEA
Away:   ATL, NO, TB, PHI, WAS, KC, SD, CHI

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Home:  ATL, CAR, TB, PHI, WAS, KC, SD, SF
Away:   ATL, CAR, TB, DAL, NYG, DEN, OAK, GB

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Home:  ATL, CAR, NO, PHI, WAS, KC, SD, STL
Away:   ATL, CAR, NO, DAL, NYG, DEN, OAK, MIN

NFC WEST

ARIZONA CARDINALS
Home:  STL, SF, SEA, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, PHI
Away:   STL, SF, SEA, GB, MIN, NE, NYJ, ATL

ST. LOUIS RAMS
Home:  ARI, SF, SEA, GB, MIN, NE, NYJ, WAS
Away:   ARI, SF, SEA, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, TB

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Home:  ARI, STL, SEA, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, NYG
Away:   ARI, STL, SEA, GB, MIN, NE, NYJ, NO

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Home:  ARI, STL, SF, GB, MIN, NE, NYJ, DAL
Away:   ARI, STL, SF, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, CAR





Since: Dec 12, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2012 11:52 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Jeff,

We can go ahead and add the position games:


2012 OPPONENTS (AFC):


AFC EAST

BUFFALO BILLS
Home:  MIA, NE, NYJ, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, KC
Away:   MIA, NE, NYJ, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, CLE

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Home:  BUF, NE, NYJ, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, OAK
Away:   BUF, NE, NYJ, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, CIN

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Home:  BUF, MIA, NYJ, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, DEN
Away:   BUF, MIA, NYJ, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, BAL

NEW YORK JETS
Home:  BUF, MIA, NE, HOU, IND, ARI, SF, SD
Away:   BUF, MIA, NE, JAC, TEN, STL, SEA, PIT

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Home:  CIN, CLE, PIT, DEN, OAK, DAL, NYG, NE
Away:   CIN, CLE, PIT, KC, SD, PHI, WAS, HOU

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Home:  BAL, CLE, PIT, DEN, OAK, DAL, NYG, MIA
Away:   BAL, CLE, PIT, KC, SD, PHI, WAS, JAC

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Home:  BAL, CIN, PIT, KC, SD, PHI, WAS, BUF
Away:   BAL, CIN, PIT, DEN, OAK, DAL, NYG, IND

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Home:  BAL, CIN, CLE, KC, SD, PHI, WAS, NYJ
Away:   BAL, CIN, CLE, DEN, OAK, DAL, NYG, TEN

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS
Home:  IND, JAC, TEN, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, BAL
Away:   IND, JAC, TEN, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, DEN

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Home:  HOU, JAC, TEN, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, CLE
Away:   HOU, JAC, TEN, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, KC

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Home:  HOU, IND, TEN, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, CIN
Away:   HOU, IND, TEN, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, OAK

TENNESSEE TITANS
Home:  HOU, IND, JAC, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, PIT
Away:   HOU, IND, JAC, BUF, MIA, GB, MIN, SD

AFC WEST

DENVER BRONCOS
Home:  KC, OAK, SD, CLE, PIT, NO, TB, HOU
Away:   KC, OAK, SD, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, NE

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Home:  DEN, OAK, SD, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, IND
Away:   DEN, OAK, SD, CLE, PIT, NO, TB, BUF

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Home:  DEN, KC, SD, CLE, PIT, NO, TB, JAC
Away:   DEN, KC, SD, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, MIA

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Home:  DEN, KC, OAK, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, TEN
Away:   DEN, KC, OAK, CLE, PIT, NO, TB, NYJ




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 10:19 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Denver essentially gets rewarded for LOSING the two games they played against other LAST place foes from the year before. You can argue that everyone has the same schedule based on division rankings, but it still doesn't change that fact that a presumed schedule advantage can lead to a definitive tiebreaker advantage.
I really fail to see your point.  Every tiebreaker is flawed to some extent, but Denver is being rewarded for winning more games that were against the same teams.  You're saying they were "rewarded" by playing easier teams, but doesn't the fact that they lost those games kinda prove that they weren't easier games.  In fact, the record of the two teams Denver played was 18-14, while San Diego was 17-15 and Oakland was 14-18.  So, your theory kind of disproves itself.  Furthermore, even if they were easier games, it is impossible to know for sure.  On thing we do know for sure is that 14 games were the same.  That part of the schedule that was the same is as identical as you can get, and the Broncos performed better.

They looked first at head-to-head, which was equal.  Division record was equal.  The teams were about as equal as they can be statistically.  And while everything has flaws, if you need to break a tie, it makes a whole lot more sense to break the tie based on games that were the same than ones that were different, at least to me.



Since: Dec 3, 2007
Posted on: January 1, 2012 10:02 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

For the first time since 2007, we have three teams from one division in the playoffs, with the three AFC North teams BAL, CIN, and PIT. In 2007, it was three NFC teams in DAL, NYG, and WAS.

The playoff schedule was just announced.  Saturday has CIN @ HOU, then DET @ NO.  Sunday has the 1 PM game of ATL @ DAL/NYG and the 4 PM game is PIT @ DEN. 



Since: Dec 20, 2010
Posted on: January 1, 2012 8:53 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

So the Chargers get knocked out on the common opponents tiebreaker. Not a Chargers fan at all, but it's a really sucky endgame. Look at Joe's post:
First off: there's KC showing up again in the count!! If you're gonna count them twice, why not everyone else in the division? To massage the common opponent subset number, so that it remains less than conference record?
Second: Denver essentially gets rewarded for LOSING the two games they played against other LAST place foes from the year before. You can argue that everyone has the same schedule based on division rankings, but it still doesn't change that fact that a presumed schedule advantage can lead to a definitive tiebreaker advantage.

Sorry to be contrary Joe, I know you approve of the step and may have even created it, but I think agn's revised step idea from Dec. 29 is much better than this.




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 7:54 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

AFC Playoffs

Seed 1—New England
Seed 2—Baltimore
Seed 3—Houston
Seed 4—Denver
Seed 5—Pittsburgh
Seed 6—Cincinnati

OAKLAND was eliminated!

I predict a Saturday night game of Pittsburgh at Denver
 For the Tebow fans
with Big Ben hurt, playing today, short rest, and travelling, Denver has a better chance than they could have dreamed of, but still will be significant underdogs.

I predict the early game on Sunday of Cincinnati at Houston



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: January 1, 2012 7:25 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

In case anyone asks....AFC WEST title came down to common opponents between DEN, OAK and SD.

- All 8-8
- All 2-2 Head to Head among 3 teams
- All 3-3 in division record
- On common opponents, DEN is 5-5 while OAK and SD were 4-6 against these teams:  MIN, BUF, GB, KC, NYJ, NE, CHI, MIA, DET

Joe

    



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 7:20 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

NFC Scenarios

Seed 1—Green Bay
Seed 2—San Francisco
Seed 3—New Orleans

Seed 4
The winner of the NY Giants-Dallas game will be the #4 seed (NY Giants get in if it is a tie)

Seed 5—Atlanta
Seed 6—Detroit




Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: January 1, 2012 7:18 pm
 

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Seed 1—New England
Seed 2—Baltimore
Seed 3—Houston


Seed #4
  • If Oakland wins, they are the #4 seed.
  • If San Diego wins, Denver is the #4 seed.


Seed 5—Pittsburgh
Seed 6—Cincinnati

TENNESSEE was eliminated!


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